Dashain Effect on NEPSE: Seven of the Last 10 Years Saw Gains
Historical data shows that NEPSE has risen in seven of the past 10 Dashain periods, while three periods recorded declines, suggesting that the festival itself does not have a consistent bullish or bearish impact on the market.
Dashain is Nepal’s biggest festival and typically brings a slowdown in economic activity and investor participation as many people travel and businesses operate on reduced schedules. However, a review of the past 10 years of NEPSE performance around Dashain shows no consistent pattern in the market’s direction. The analysis, covering roughly 10 days before Dashain and the post-holiday trading period, shows that NEPSE gained in seven years and declined in three. The strongest increase was recorded in 2081, when the index rose from around 2,466 before Dashain to 2,745 afterward, while the largest decline came in 2080, when NEPSE fell from 1,896 to 1,846. In 2082, the index moved only modestly from around 2,487 before Dashain to 2,503 after the festival, highlighting that the holiday period does not necessarily trigger a major market movement. This year, NEPSE is entering the Dashain period after recent selling pressure, with the index closing at 2,566.76 points on October 5, 2026, significantly below its 52-week high of 2,960.40 and relatively close to its 52-week low of 2,487.17. With Dashain falling on Kartik 4 (October 21, 2026) and Ghatasthapana beginning on Ashwin 25, trading activity could remain subdued during the holiday period. While weaker participation could limit buying pressure, the market's proximity to its 52-week low could also create opportunities for bargain buying if investor confidence improves. Overall, historical performance suggests that Dashain itself does not determine whether NEPSE will rise or fall; broader market trends, liquidity, investor sentiment, economic conditions, and developments during the holiday period are likely to have a greater influence.