Gulf Oil Producers Race to Reclaim Market Share as Hormuz Flows Recover

West Asian oil producers are stepping up efforts to regain customers and market share disrupted by the Iran war, as crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz begin to return toward normal levels. According to data from Kepler, around 12 million barrels of crude oil per day have passed through the strategic waterway on average over the past two weeks, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. With additional shipments through alternative routes, Middle Eastern oil exports exceeded their pre-war average of 18 million barrels per day during most of the week ending October 3. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait are now seeking to restore their positions in key markets, with some producers offering discounts to attract customers who shifted to alternative suppliers during the conflict. The UAE has brought exports close to pre-war levels, while Saudi Arabia has increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after disruptions affected its alternative export routes. Meanwhile, Iran's presence in the Asian crude market has fallen sharply, with its share of Asian crude imports dropping to zero in October, according to Kepler data. Despite the recovery in exports, high shipping and insurance costs and continued security risks around Hormuz are keeping global oil prices elevated. Brent crude is trading above $100 per barrel, around 40% higher than before the war. As a result, increased exports from Gulf producers may not immediately translate into lower fuel prices for consumers.